Pumpkins enjoying some October weather last year. (John Brighenti/Flickr)

超级人碰人摸大公鸡免费视频-Despite our damp finish, September’s crunchy grass and summerlike story puts the rain question front and center for the month ahead. But the pattern is changing, at least a bit, as we finally head into fall.

99re久久热最新地址一-With such changes in mind, our latest outlook favors October to be warmer than normal for temperatures and near normal for rain.

  • 2019香蕉国偷产拍视频-While the October temperature average is 59.5 degrees (based on 1981-2010 data), we may be closer to the last three years in the 62-65 degree range, or three to five degrees warmer than normal. Normal October rainfall is 3.72 inches. We expect this October may yield three to four inches, or close to normal.





    秋霞66手机版-After today, it might be rather dry for the next week. Beyond that, the latest medium-range modeling is favoring about half an inch to one inch of rain for our area next week. Below is a recent American GFS ensemble forecast for that time frame.


    (NOAA)

    超级人碰人摸大公鸡免费视频-Dry September considerations



    99re久久热最新地址一-I ranked the 10 driest Septembers before this year (even after today’s rain, 2019 will end up among the driest) and then rolled them forward into October. I was surprised to find that 60 percent of the 10 driest Septembers went on to have a wetter-than-normal October.

    秋霞66手机版-The average of all 10 years was also wetter than normal (4.41 inches vs. 3.72 inches). The only two cases on the list from the 2000s (2005 and 2007) featured very wet Octobers.


    Octobers following the top 10 driest Septembers. A majority finished wetter than normal.

    2019香蕉国偷产拍视频-This historical reality combined with the wetter weather models for next week helps us to feel reasonably comfortable on bringing needed rain back for the October outlook.

    2019香蕉国偷产拍视频-Another angle

    偷偷要费观看视频在 线-We are also seeing signs that the tropical Pacific is starting to churn again. The relatively cooler water temperatures in late summer have driven the drier and hotter narrative for the eastern United States, but that is starting to fade.

    秋霞66手机版-These changes could shift October to both a cooler and wetter story by later in the month, but the very warm start to October (with some records likely) should keep the overall month warmer than normal.

    偷偷要费观看视频在 线-The latest NOAA CFS long-range weather model for the second half of October still leans warm for the east, but only marginally so, at about one degree above normal.





    (NOAA)

    超级人碰人摸大公鸡免费视频-On the precipitation side, the model has a wetter-than-normal second half of October.











    (NOAA)

    超级人碰人摸大公鸡免费视频-The bottom line is that we are finally moving on from summer (hooray!), and also finally finding new routes for rain to return to the Washington area.